Trump Trounces All in All Polls…
But with RFK, Jr. in as an Independent, no one knows who he might hurt most
October 27, 2023–All polls now show former President Trump leading whether in the primary against lackluster so-called rivals to win as the GOP’s nominee or whether against Joe Biden where he is surging not only nationally but in Arizona, Georgia, Michigan, Nevada, North Carolina, Pennsylvania and Wisconsin where he leads Biden 47% to 43%.
Democrat Robert F. Kennedy, Jr., who the left-wing media calls a conspiracy nut for his anti-vax stance, switched running for the Democrat party nomination to Independent on October 9th. It will be a three-way race. RFK, Jr. is showing 19% support in a three-way race with Trump and Biden in the race in a recent Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll. Trump leads the three-way as well. More here.
Kennedy might be another Ross Perot who launched his campaign for president in 1992 as an Independent against Democrat and then-candidate Bill Clinton and Republican incumbent George H.W. Bush.
Perot earned 19% of the popular vote but zero electoral votes; and, 39% of likely voters said they would vote for Perot prior to voting. He pulled 20% from Democrats and 27% from Republicans.
Clinton won with only 43% of the vote. RFK, Jr. could make a strong showing like Perot for many reasons. He has national name brand recognition due to the Kennedy name. There is still enough cultural memory of the Kennedy political dynasty within Democrats and voters in general who are aware that his father served as President John F. Kennedy’s Attorney General. Both were tragically assassinated in the 1960s. His is platform is more moderate than current Democrat party policies and it is a niche no Democrat wanted to fill. He recently visited the border, for instance, and came away saying, Trump was right…
PRIMARY POLLS SHOW TRUMP OBLITERATING THE FIELD
No matter what the forces arrayed against Donald J. Trump in his third bid for the White House throw at him and we all know a gargantuan effort to sink his chances is well underway, Trump’s poll numbers keep going in one direction: Up.
A few questions remain regarding the primary race on the GOP side: Will the RNC cancel remaining GOP presidential debates? and, who will drop out and when?
Former California gubernatorial candidate and well-known radio show host, Larry Elder, has already complied and announced he was dropping his failed bid Friday telling Republicans to unite behind Donald Trump.
Trump began his “Kiss of Death Countdown” 60 days ago. That’s when Jeff Roe, DeSantis campaign adviser and head of his super PAC, gave him 60 days to show progress or else. Trump has brutally egged him on at every turn as evident in this excerpt.
| KISS OF DEATH COUNTDOWN: 1 Day Left |
| “Today, Ron DeSanctimonious is making his way to Massachusetts because he needs to beg donors for money since he’s dead broke, probably because his campaign is fully funding his extravagant and lavish lifestyle of private jets and endless pudding cups. The last time we checked, Massachusetts isn’t Iowa, where DeSanctus and Always Back Down said would be their focus. |
It’s not all invective coming out of Team Trump. He takes care to support his allegations about Ron DeSanctus and the state of the primary race with charts, stats, and graphs here.
We might be more sympathetic to Ron had he not made his own bed.
Meanwhile, mega GOP donors –with, according to Steve Bannon, ties to DeSantis and other GOP rivals — were being feted at a fundraiser Thursday night (10/26) at Mar-a-Lago where Trump reportedly raked in a record $6 million. RSBN’s article, “Trump makes incredible haul at Mar-a-Lago fundraisers this week” here.
The Morning Consult: 2024 GOP Primary Poll
Almost every pro-Trump media channel is carrying the results of this poll showing Trump with 62% of the primary vote – some 49 points ahead of his closest rival Ron DeSantis. Click the image for the full article.
The Morning Consult: Presidential National Poll Shows ‘Biden Struggling’
Polls are now drilling down into battles on the state level between Donald Trump and Joe Biden as presumptive nominees. Again, we see that ‘elections have consequences’ when it comes to skewing data and we see that at least three red states are now called Swing States or Battleground States based on 2020 election results. We’re playing along for now. Here is the ‘Biden Struggling’ swing state poll result:
Can I be skeptical about Biden’s attrition said to be at 14% by this poll?…while Trump’s attrition rate is 9? Any reporting on 2020 election results starts with the wrong premise due to the fraudulent vote that occurred in at least those six contested states – Arizona, Georgia, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, and Nevada. Curiously, Arizona and Georgia – both solid red states – are now called swing states. So is it 14% attrition of 81 million voters — with an unknown amount of votes faked — or is it 14% of say 61 million votes which is the more likely tally Joe Biden received in the last election?
Some key takeaways from the Morning Consult national poll published on 10/19:
For full article: https://pro.morningconsult.com/analysis/biden-trump-swing-state-polling
However, Project 538 polling – headed by former ABC News pollster, Nate Silver – showed Trump up a whopping 10 points as of October 27th, a few days ago. Trump posted this graphic on his Truth Social page:
Team Trump spread the news everywhere including an announcement to his email subscribers:
The economic perceptions may prove most consequential: Swing-state voters cited the economy more than any other issue as the most important to them at the ballot box. And on specific pocketbook issues, including the stock market, housing, the cost of everyday goods, interest rates, and taxes, more respondents trusted Trump.
This poll had a margin of error of 1 percentage point. MOE is usually +3-4%.
Here: https://tinyurl.com/hb874txb
“Trump’s polling continues to defy gravity both in the primary and the general election. Kennedy right now doesn’t change the result — an election held today would elect Donald Trump,” Mark Penn, the co-director of the Harvard CAPS-Harris Poll, said.
Mark Penn quoted in The Hill, “Trump Leads Biden, RFK, Jr, Poll” (October 20, 2023)
TLDR? ABC News Provides In-depth Coverage
ABC published a very long in-depth article on the race between Biden and Trump back in September and covers everything from job approval ratings to sentiment among voters on the economy and to sentiment surrounding Trump’s indictments was included.
Here’s a taste:
Is it the economy stupid?
Candidate-preference results also are differentiated by ratings of the national economy — which 74% overall rate negatively, with sharp partisan differences. The poll probed for details on that sentiment, finding two major irritants: food prices, rated negatively (as not so good or poor) by 91%; and gas and energy prices, rated negatively by 87%.
Or is it job approval ratings?
President Joe Biden’s job approval rating is 19 points underwater, his ratings for handling the economy and immigration are at career lows. A record number of Americans say they’ve become worse off under his presidency, three-quarters say he’s too old for another term and Donald Trump is looking better in retrospect — all severe challenges for Biden in his reelection campaign ahead.
Or is it how voting demos will break?
- Biden has just 50% support from members of racial and ethnic minority groups (the same as in May), while Trump has inched up from 32 to 39 to 43% support in this group in this year’s ABC/Post polls. Among Hispanics, it’s a surprising 50-44%, Trump-Biden, albeit with a small sample.
- Among 18- to 35-year-olds, Trump has a slight 53-38% advantage (marginally significant at this sample size). Still, that essentially matches what it was in May, and Trump also was numerically ahead in this group (albeit not significantly) by 50-43% in February.
- Trump has gained 7 points from May among men, now a 61-34% result against Biden. That’s led by a 15-point gain for Trump among non-college-educated white men, a mainstay group for him, to 79% support.
This article is not written without bias but before you say – Too Long, Didn’t Read – it is worth a look:
Newsweek Plays It Cute
At least Newsweek refers to Arizona and Georgia as ‘traditional red’ states. It rankles that half the country has to swallow what can only be called The Big Lie that the 2020 election was not stolen. An excerpt from Newsweek’s “Donald Trump Beats Joe Biden in 2 Pivotal Swing States: Poll”:
Arizona and Georgia are traditionally considered to be red states, with the majority of voters choosing the Republican nominee for most elections in the past few decades. However, that was until Biden turned both states blue in the 2020 election. Biden narrowly won Arizona by a margin of 0.3 percent and Georgia by 0.2 percent against Trump.
Link to full article: https://www.newsweek.com/donald-trump-beats-joe-biden-2-pivotal-swing-states-new-poll-1834813?utm_source=substack&utm_medium=email
NPR/PBS NewsHour/Marist National Poll Results Show Trump Hurt More by RFK than #FJB
These poll results were issued October 17 and has a MOE of +/- 3.9 much higher than the Morning Consult polls.
Judging by how quickly this headline spread in state-run media, this poll shows a result favorable to a Democrat over the ‘surging’ Donald Trump. A quick Google search bears this out:
Conventional lore surrounding whether third-party candidates can mount successful bids for the White House in presidential races with Ross Perot’s bid a primary example, is that so-called spoiler candidates take from the party they break from to mount their bid.
Perot was a conservative/libertarian and successful entrepreneur. His platform resonated with unhappy Republican voters, not liberal Democrats.
Kennedy is inarguably still a liberal Democrat. Last week he said he was for reparations. One might reasonably assume that issue alone would turn off Republican and even Independent voters.
RFK, Jr. was smart to lead with his anti-pandemic/anti-vaxx stance which he put in his book, “The Real Anthony Fauci” – it’s a film too – and achieved widespread success. Trump’s record on Covid is his one chink and RFK capitalized early on it.
Since then he has been rolling out policies that are squarely liberal and likely deal-breakers for Trump voters.
Does this poll hold water or is it slanted? Full write-up with methodology in link below:
https://maristpoll.marist.edu/polls/the-2024-presidential-contest/
EVENTS HAPPENING NOW: TRUMP WILL BE IN LAS VEGAS TODAY AND LAS IOWA TOMORROW
Tune into Real America’s Voice, Newsmax, OANN, or Rightside Broadcasting to watch any Trump rally or major campaign event.
Click to get tickets or learn more about upcoming Trump events. He will be in Sioux City, Iowa, tonight and Las Vegas, NV, tomorrow: https://www.donaldjtrump.com/events
