For 9 years, Murdoch’s Fox News Still Skews Trump Support in Presidential Election Polling
This, while tens of thousands attend Trump rallies in deep blue states like NJ and NY, and as Trump raises an historic $420 million for his campaign post-conviction in NY…
June 22, 2024–A Fox News poll making waves for showing Trump and Biden neck-and-neck in the 2024 race conducted June 19 shows a three-point swing among registered voters nationally from Trump to Biden.
It should surprise no one that Fox News, notorious for what many consider its skewing of poll results whenever Donald Trump is being polled, would wet blanket Trump’s otherwise surging polls which has been particularly evident in the seven battleground states that will decide the 2024 race that has Trump up significantly or with a slight edge. He was never up as high in the polls in these swing states — PA, AZ, GA, MI, WI, MN, and NV — either in 2016 or 2020 — as he is now.
For some measure of how off this national poll might truly be, Trump is up by 20 points in Iowa, according to Newsmax. This week’s Emerson poll and the new Rasmussen poll that came out yesterday tell a very different story for the former president in his battle to retake the White House than Fox News polls paint. (Scroll down for more on both the Emerson and Rasmussen stories.)
What caused the three-point swing in the Fox poll?
The marketplace had absorbed the news of Trump’s guilty conviction by the time Fox conducted its poll. Contrary to left-wing media predictions (rather hopes) Trump’s poll numbers climbed in every other poll as did his fundraising numbers with many prognosticators beginning to whisper the words ‘landslide Trump victory in November.’
It is not nitpicking at the Fox poll to point out its weaknesses. Most pollsters say national polls are meaningless this far out from the election, for one. Pollsters such as Jim McLaughlin are more interested in, and spend more time on these state-by-state polls conducted in key battleground states. McLaughlin gave more particulars with the morning America Sunrise anchors Friday citing two key stats that Fox ignored: One, two-thirds of Independents think the prosecution against Donald Trump are ‘political’; and two, they also believe these prosecutions are driven by Joe Biden. Listen to McLaughlin’s full commentary where he addresses the Fox poll at 13:50:
https://americasvoice.news/video/KKkOryPdDDdvGqV/?related=playlist
Hidden in the so-called cross-tabs of the Fox News poll is the claim that Trump is trailing by two points with ‘rural voters.’ This assertion doesn’t even merit a rebuttal. But here is a map – produced by Brilliant Maps – showing Republican and Democrat votes by county. Click on the image to learn more.
Another typical flaw of this poll type is that only registered voters were polled, not likely voters. The latter is considered to be the more accurate and relevant metric.
This news also comes after Fox News long-time board member, Paul Ryan issued fresh anti-Trump broadsides in media interviews this week. After nine years, his TDS has not waned one eensy bit.
Trump wasted no time ripping Fox owner, Rupert Murdoch, and his lackey Paul Ryan — telling Murdoch to ‘get that dog off your board’ in a string of ‘mean tweets’:
Newsmax, a right-leaning news outlet that just announced going public on the NYSE, didn’t hold back in its reporting on the feud, saying:
“Former President Donald Trump threw napalm on the wildfire that is his relationship with Fox News, saying Wednesday the cable network can never be trusted, especially with former Speaker Paul Ryan on the board of directors of its parent company…”
For more on the Murdoch-Ryan-Trump war of words go here.
It’s always a red letter day when the bewigged Frank Luntz, ex-Fox pollster (guess he doesn’t lie big enough for Fox) makes media rounds peddling his so-called data on elections. Luntz, former Republican House Speaker Kevin McCarthy’s lackey (er, ‘roommate’), has been as negatively biased toward Trump all these years as much as any TDSer like say Paul Ryan.
Luntz claimed this week on CNN that voters hate both Biden and Trump and that there is a ‘hidden anger vote – from undecided Independents – that will surprise everyone on election day.’ At least in this interview (clip below) Luntz seems to be in awe of Trump’s staying power particularly after his conviction in New York. He’s also bowled over that Trump is making blue Minnesota competitive. He’s one point behind in that state which has not voted for a Republican since 1972. Luntz’s X page is here.
Voters hate Trump?
He has raised nearly a half-billion dollars – breaking all fundraising records for single-day and monthly hauls while rally crowds swell to never-before-seen numbers. In Wildwood, NJ, the crowd totaled 109,000; in The Bronx – over 25,000 turned out; in Detroit over 15,000 bought tickets to hear him speak at a Turning Point USA event. Trump is holding a big rally at Drexel Univ. in Philadelphia later today. If the trend continues, we will see people lined up for hours in advance with lines that could stretch for a mile. It should be a massive turnout. All of these rallies demonstrate Trump does not just draw large crowds in ‘red states’ but he pulls it off in ‘blue states’ too.
Emerson Poll
President Donald Trump is leading Joe Biden in key states, according to the latest polling from Emerson College. Click the image to access the full story:
Emerson found that President Trump is leading Joe Biden in Minnesota, a state that a Republican hasn’t won since 1972 and the same is true in Wisconsin, a state he won in 2016, which put him over the top in the electoral vote count. Arch nemesis, Hillary Clinton, did not really campaign there against Bill Clinton’s advice and she lost.
Rasmussen Poll
Here’s the topline news from the Rasmussen Poll conducted on May 3, 2024:
“Despite being on trial in New York City, former President Donald Trump has widened his lead over President Joe Biden during the past month. The latest Rasmussen Reports national telephone and online survey finds that, in a three-way contest between Biden, Trump and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., 46% of Likely U.S. Voters would choose Trump, 36% would vote for Biden and nine percent (9%) would vote for Kennedy. In April, Trump led by 6 points, 44% to 38% for Biden, with RFK Jr. at 10%. Four percent (4%) now say they’d vote for some other candidate, and another four percent (4%) are undecided. (To see survey question wording, click here.)”
Rasmussen Reports
The most recent poll conducted this past week surveyed voters for sentiment surrounding immigration issues. In this poll, data reveals Trump is up by 10 points over Biden (see image at top of article).
The New York Post covers the Rasmussen Poll in-depth here.
Trump’s Appeal to Blacks, Hispanics, Women and Young Voters is Real.
Blacks
In this widely circulated clip, CNN’s Data analyst, Harry Enten, is ‘perplexed’ by Trump’s ‘historic’ polling numbers with blacks telling pollsters they’re backing Trump. Enten, who is almost jumping up and down over the news and it appears to be neutral enthusiasm, says these numbers represent a ‘seismic shift’ from Democrats to Republicans in this demographic.
Black voters under the age of 50, Enten maintains from the data, are swinging toward Trump in droves. Trump’s surged to 37+ points from the already remarkable gain from 7% to 21% during this election cycle.. Click above to listen.
Fox News covers this story here: https://www.foxnews.com/media/cnn-data-guru-speechless-polling-trump-headed-historic-performance-black-voters
Former Republican Speaker of the House, Newt Gingrich, weighed on the blacks voting for Trump trend,
“I think we shouldn’t assume that Black Americans are dumb or insensitive or incapable of learning. They’re looking at grocery store prices they can’t afford, and they know it’s Biden’s fault. They’re looking at millions of illegal immigrants coming into their neighborhoods, taking their jobs, threatening their families with violence, and they know Biden is responsible. You turn around, and they know the tools aren’t working, despite all the money we pour into the teachers’ unions, and they know the Democrats are responsible. They look at big cities where … Democrat mayor after Democrat mayor is corrupt, incompetent, and incapable of serving their interests. So what you’re beginning to see is a movement that says … ‘What have we got to lose by trying out Donald Trump?'”
We covered this trend in two parts last month. Articles available here and here.
Hispanics
More Latino voters trust Trump according to an Equis, a research firm focused on pursuing Latino interests, poll that found that more Latinos in battleground states trust Republicans and former President Donald Trump than President Joe Biden and Democrats on their handling of immigration issues. Link to article written by the Washington Examiner that appeared in Colorado’s The Gazette here.
Women
Newsmax says Biden is losing women voters but still lags by 8 points behind Biden. The so-called white educated suburban women vote has been a stubborn demographic that still favors Democrats, but according to new data inflation is beginning to have an impact and shifting votes from Democrat to Republican. Newsmax reports: “President Joe Biden’s lead among female voters has waned since the 2020 election and is smaller than former President Donald Trump’s support among male voters, according to an average of more than 30 polls conducted during the last six months and compiled by The New York Times.” Article here.
Young Voters
Star Parker, writing for The Patriot Post, gathered new polling on the young demographic. Here is some of her data:
“A lot of attention is being given to support being picked up by Donald Trump among non-white voters. But the change taking place among young voters is even more dramatic. In the elections in 2016 and 2020, Donald Trump was soundly defeated among voters 18-29. In 2016, Hillary Clinton defeated Donald Trump among voters ages 18-29, 55% to 37%. In 2020, Joe Biden defeated Trump in this same youth demographic, 60% to 36%. However, a new Quinnipiac poll shows Trump leading Biden by one point among voters 18-34. Per Gallup favorability/non-favorability ratings, in October 2020, prior to the election, 58% of those 18-34 rated Biden “favorable” against 38% who rated Trump ‘favorable.'”
This trend is as Parker notes, truly earth-shattering. Full article here.
Vegas & Market Betting Odds
Are you a betting man? Well, if you are, betting on political races is illegal but that doesn’t stop oddsmakers from putting out their feelers and arriving at betting odds numbers. Some say, it is the oddsmakers in Vegas that is the better measure of market sentiment than polls.
This graphic from Covers.com shows Trump with a 60% probability of winning the 2024 election. Click the image to delve further.
Polymarket is more oddsmaker/market watcher than pollster and they are forecasting that Trump has a 17% greater chance to win the election than Biden. Click the image to learn more about Polymarket’s forecast.
And how ’bout that nearly half a billion dollar fundraising haul beating the O’Biden machine?
Sacks wrote one of the longest, most-detailed endorsements for a presidential candidate ever seen. It’s worth clicking to read his full remarks. (Sacks unfortunately posted his endorsement on X but did not provide a hyperlink.) Go to his X feed — Sacks went against the Silicon Valley tribe and is taking a beating for it but he is sticking by his stance. His endorsement is pinned to the top of his feed.
Here is an excerpt:
Why I’m Backing President Trump
As many press accounts have reported, I’m hosting a fundraising event for President Donald J. Trump at my home in San Francisco this evening.
Over the last couple of years, I have hosted events for presidential candidates Ron DeSantis, Vivek Ramaswamy, and Robert F. Kennedy Jr., as well as several Congressional figures in both major parties. I give to many, but endorse few.
But today I am giving my endorsement to our 45th President, Donald J. Trump, to be our 47th President. My reasons rest on four main issues that I think are vital to American prosperity, security, and stability – issues where the Biden administration has veered badly off course and where I believe President Trump can lead us back.
1. The Economy
President Biden took over an economy that was already recovering strongly from the Covid-induced shock of Q2 2020. Demand had roared back, and employment had recovered. But he chose to keep priming the pump with unnecessary Covid stimulus – almost $2 trillion of it, passed on a straight party-line vote in March of 2021, with trillions more to follow for “infrastructure,” green energy, and “inflation reduction.”
Biden did this despite early warnings from former Clinton Treasury Secretary Larry Summers that it could lead to inflation. When the inflation came, the Biden administration dismissed it as “transitory.” In fact, inflation still remains persistently high even after the fastest interest-rate tightening cycle in memory…
David Sacks, post from X account, June 6, 2024
Sacks then hosted a $500,000 plate dinner at his Pacific Heights mansion shortly after his public endorsement that reportedly raised $12 million. Politico calls this new phenomenon – which drew donors from the tech world in nearby Silicon Valley – ‘the nerd right’ and says it is ‘small but growing’ interest from Silicon Valley tech moguls. They reluctantly cover this story here.
This and other large-dollar donations poured into Trump campaign coffers hours after the guilty verdict was announced.
To name just one extraordinary example, billionaire, Miriam Adelson, pledged $100 million to a Trump PAC in the wake of the news. She is the widow of long-time Trump donor, Sheldon Adelson. Here she is on Instagram:
And, Friday he raked in $2 million from a crypto-currency group who ostensibly likes Trump’s new stance on protecting crypto-currencies from being co-opted by the U.S. federal government.
Last week, he made the rounds in California (or Commie-fornia) hitting Newport Beach, Beverly Hills in tandem with his San Francisco stop.
The Los Angeles Times reports, “Trump raises millions in Newport Beach and Beverly Hills in post-conviction appearances.”
“Trump has received an infusion of cash since the verdicts were announced on May 30. Notably, he reported raising $53 million in the first 24 hours after the trial ended. Between a Thursday fundraiser in San Francisco, a Friday event in Beverly Hills, Saturday’s Newport Beach luncheon and another gathering in Las Vegas, Trump was expected to raise $27.5 million for his campaign committee as well as an additional $6 million for other groups supporting his effort, according to a senior campaign official,” it chronicled.
See Resources for this and more links.
After perusing dozens of articles seeking that big $420 million number in the headline, we came up short. The only article that carried the total fundraising number of $420 million in the headline was John Solomon’s Just the News. MSM articles chopped these numbers up and typically shied from calling the haul ‘historic.’ JTN actually interview RNC head, Michael Whatley, to source its story. Here it is:
The bulk of that initial $53 million raised post-conviction still came from small donors across the country pitching in to help the president. He spent $83 million in the month of June alone on legal bills and there is no end in sight.
Resources
Fox News: “Three-point shift in Biden-Trump matchup since May” by Dana Blanton (June 19, 2024): https://www.foxnews.com/official-polls/fox-news-poll-three-point-shift-biden-trump-matchup-since-may
Trump’s Palm Beach Playbook. Follow the link to opt-in:
Newsmax, “Trump’s Fundraising Pounding Away at Biden’s Early Lead,” by Sandy Fitzgerald (June 21, 2024): https://www.newsmax.com/newsfront/donald-trump-joe-biden-campaigns/2024/06/21/id/1169621
The Daily Wire, “CNN Polling Expert Says Trump Careening Towards a Historic Performance among Black Voters,” by Zach Jewell (June 17, 2024): https://www.dailywire.com/news/cnn-polling-expert-says-trump-careening-towards-a-historic-performance-among-black-voters? fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR2srafMkjRSP6pMnjW2QPVxmWr9lXJtM8zja7tKC8A_-CIfCMYpXNue-NY_aem_ZmFrZWR1bW15MTZieXRlcw
Politico, “Why Trump is finding new friends in Silicon Valley,” by Lara Corte and Dustin Gardiner (June 6, 2024): https://www.politico.com/news/2024/06/07/trump-silicon-valley-friends-00162248?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR38-aB5rTW-KfIQiYJv4kOSLfGLO3KWp9Y0a73kLNkpuIzJ0CnZtAQOugg_aem_ZmFrZWR1bW15MTZieXRlcw
The Daily Wire, “Trump raises $12 million at fundraiser in Nancy Pelosi’s hometown?” by Leif Le Mahieu (June 7, 2024): https://www.dailywire.com/news/trump-raises-12-million-at-fundraiser-in-nancy-pelosis-hometown?fbclid=IwZXh0bgNhZW0CMTAAAR26wqWYgVeJ0q4q708RZacRqIQU8gNzmeq-x7zKS8aEDb2ugZGuaigG5D0_aem_ZmFrZWR1bW15MTZieXRlcw
The Los Angeles Times, “Trump raises millions in Newport Beach and Beverly Hills in two post-conviction appearances,” by Hannah Fry, Seema Mehta, Faith E. Pinho, and Laura J. Nelson (June 8, 2024):
The Washington Post, “Trump’s convictions fueled donation surge that could reshape contest,” by Maeve Reston and Clara Ence Morse (June 21, 2024): https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2024/06/20/trump-conviction-fundraising-campaign-donations
