7 Things to Know About the 2024 Presidential Election Race Polling Right Now
Or, a totally biased small-fry opinion about home stretch election polling…
September 9, 2024–When GOP nominee for president, Donald J. Trump, is up in the polls as he was before the coup that installed Candidate A Kamala Harris, Biden’s VP, as the new Democrat party nominee for president, it’s human nature to engage in some confirmation bias.
Polls are true for Trump voters because those head-to-head Biden v. Trump numbers where Trump was up by as much as 10 points in Pennsylvania favored Republicans. Right?
When polls go south for our guy as they have during Harris’s honeymoon period that stretched from when she (and others, no one really knows who) ousted her boss until the end of the DNC convention on August 22nd, where she was crowned Queen of the Party of Woke (aka Kamala-ism), we tend to make excuses. Polls are suddenly rigged and must be wrong.
It’s been 18 days since Harris’s nomination. And, unlike any presidential candidate before her, the Harris campaign did not get the usual 5-point post-convention poll bounce. Even her former boss and the then-addlepated Joe Biden of 2020, got a convention bounce.
Everyone recognized however that the coup was effectuated by Democrats against their own president who was losing ground to Trump every day by every metric due to his declining mental condition, to accomplish an obvious political goal:
Get rid of the losing Democrat candidate, a sitting president, install someone new, and close the gap between the two candidates through suppression polls while staging an unprecedented full-court media propaganda campaign so people will believe any new candidate can beat Donald Trump.
The powers that be need plausible deniability to rig this election as they did in 2020. But first, the race has to look and feel close or even the state-run media will have a tough road to hoe when they are told to lie to the American people that late-entrant, dark horse Cackling Commie Kammeleon won the election.
In the last 60 days of this election and in this polluted media environment, rivalries amongst various polling companies are emerging as they compete for headlines, try to tell voters their polls are credible, and/or skew data (like Nate Silver’s 538) to stay on the good side of the Democrat-controlled media industrial complex run by the regime.
Polling has always been a useful propaganda tool. Few voters look at the methodology used or understand what over-sampling and margin of error means however, and — exactly what the heck is a cross tab?
As long as the other side gets headlines that sow seeds of doubt and division in the minds of their opponents’ voters (as they have done all along with the slew of criminal indictments against Donald Trump), facts are inconsequential.
It’s our job to discern what data is valid and what is just more b.s. designed to bolster the empty suit 11th hour media confection who goes by the name Kamala Harris aka Candidate A.
Here goes.
#1. Elon Musk’s Poll Shows Trump Wins 2:1 v. Harris
X owner, Elon Musk, who has fully endorsed Trump for President this time around and might head a task force to cut government waste if Trump is elected, conducted an informal presidential online poll via his X account that has Trump beating Harris 73% to 27%.
He cut off the tally at 5.8 million votes. Feel free to confirmation bias.
#2. Polymarket Odds and Nate Silver Show Trump Winning Again
We liked Polymarket’s betting odds when, you will recall they had Trump up with 64% likelihood to win back in late July. We covered it here. Now Trump is up against Harris by 8 percentage points in betting odds, but a month ago that margin was 15 points. See screengrabs below:
Go here for daily tracking from Polymarket: https://polymarket.com/elections
Meanwhile, Nate Silver of 538, who other pollsters like Rich Baris, the People’s Pundit, and Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen Reports have called a con man for his unfounded 2024 race predictions, and who was a former sports betting expert, reversed course Saturday morning from having Trump down to Harris post-convention to having him 23.2 points up now. See screengrab:
#3. “Harris is Still Trying to Rebuild Biden’s Winning 2020 Coalition” says The Wall Street Journal
The Wall Street Journal in its “Harris is Still Trying to Rebuild Biden’s Winning 2020 Coalition” article contends, “The Democratic coalition that elected President Biden in 2020 was fractured and weakened by the time he ended his campaign for re-election. In the six weeks since, Kamala Harris has gone a long way toward repairing the damage.”
The article published this week went on to say, “But recent Wall Street Journal polling shows the vice president has more work to do to overcome the gains former President Donald Trump has made among Black, Latino and young voters—groups that traditionally back Democrats. Any erosion in the Democratic coalition could decide the election, given that Biden’s support was barely strong enough to win in 2020. The president’s Electoral College victory rested on tiny margins of about 44,000 votes across three states.”
Link here – warning: it is behind the WSJ paywall: https://www.wsj.com/politics/elections/harris-is-still-trying-to-rebuild-bidens-winning-2020-coalition-423f43c6
Charlie Kirk walked through the WSJ data – getting around that paywall – on his September 4th show. Listen for stats — from the article — showing Trump up with black voters at 20%, even with Harris with Latinos at 48-47%, and at 8:48 for revelations about male Gen Z voters who are ‘throwing a curve ball into this election data’ because ‘they show a 51% gap between Gen Z male and female voters.’ That is, Gen Z males are 51% in favor of Trump over Gen Z females who are almost non-existent.
Click: https://americasvoice.news/video/kFsK1iB1CZopRLC/?related=playlist
#4. Labor Day 2024 Trump is Doing Better than in 2016 or 2020
On September 3rd, Charlie Kirk proclaimed, “We are in the best position post-Labor Day in the polls that Donald J. Trump has ever been in. He was never up in the polls post-Labor Day in either 2016 yet he won and not up in 2020 either.”
You might recall that The New York Times famously had Hillary Clinton up with a 71% chance of winning in 2016.
Rich Baris, the People’s Pundit on War Room with Natalie Winters – September 5, 2024
Click the above video for full segment with Rich Baris and Natalie Winters (filling in for Steve Bannon) on War Room this week. She queried Baris about breaking news coming from the State Department that they call Russia Hoax 2.0 which purportedly shows Russian interference in our election. Again!
The two facetiously discussed how preposterous it was at 27:48 with Baris underscoring the dangers this kind of ‘news’ poses when trying to poll voters. See time stamp below for highlight of the rest of the segment.
TIME STAMP:
29:00 – Ohio is up 10 pts. for Trump; Iowa is up 15 pts. for Trump. Both are really solid.
29:47 – Mitchell is showing Trump up in MI and probably true and says Harris’s own internal polling is showing this too which is why she’s going back to MI.
33:30 Trump is a strong closer. His support among black men has not eroded. He has a solid lead in the Midwest and in the Mid-Atlantic which we read as he’s doing well in Pennsylvania.
33:39 – Biden did better with ‘leaners’ than Harris is doing. This is a pick up for Trump.
33:40 – Republicans are never going to win the popular vote but Democrats need to win by 3 pts. to win the electoral vote. Biden won by 4 pts. and barely squeaked by.
36:35 – Democrats raised $300 million in campaign dollars in August to Trump’s $130 million. Baris says this is true in all elections saying Clinton outraised Trump 3:1 and Biden 6:1.
37:36 – Harris is spending $25 million in NH, ME, and MN ‘because she’s scared of losing’ – even though she says she’s helping down ballot races.
38:20 – Harris go no bump in the polls from the convention.
39:05 – We know from the past that Trump always outperforms polls.
For more, go to http://www.peoplespundit.locals.com
#5. How RFK’s Endorsement Impacts the Race: A 6,000 Person Rasmussen Poll
Highly recommend listening to the entire 18:52 minute video with Mark Mitchell of Rasmussen Reports explaining how RFK, Jr.’s endorsement of Trump might be impacting the race.
Early in the video Mitchell offers his commentary on polls that lie citing Nate Silver’s 538 and that wild outlier done by Fairleigh Dickinson University. Follow the time stamp for highlights.
TIME STAMP:
1:21 – Real Clear Politics shows Harris up by 2 points nationally. We’re not seeing it and think the numbers have been adjusted.
3:21 – Nate Silver of 538 seems to have added 2 points to Harris’s numbers to a national aggregate number which was published during the DNC convention. Mitchell calls it ‘black box’ polling. This poll had Harris at 52 points; and Trump in the high 30s.
5:52 – Fairleigh Dickinson University used a ‘push polling’ trick to produce a poll that they claimed had Harris up 7 pts. nationally over Trump after the convention. The Hill and other media outlets ran with that headline.
7:34 – The push question was asked after what candidate preference and was this: “Do you consider yourself to have masculine traits?”
7:43 – RFK’s impact on the race. Mitchell sees three ways his endorsement will or could impact. The first two ways show incremental shifts to Trump of between 1.1% to 5.5%.
10:49 – Mitchell shows that in a generic D v. R house ballot race, Republicans are favored by 43.7% with Democrats at 15.7%. This is where Trump might pick up votes.
14:35 – Mitchell believes that the ‘spectacular’ event in Glendale, AZ with Bobby Kennedy on stage with Donald Trump offers voters something ‘new’ that is not showing up in three-way polling, or two-way polling of head-to-head match-ups. He said the message of Unity will ‘blow people away.’ And t
his is the third way Trump picks up votes with most upside potential.
For daily tracking from Rasmussen, click here: https://www.rasmussenreports.com/public_content/politics/political_updates/prez_track_sep06
#6. Latest Battleground/Swing States Polls
Red State takes on the Nate Silver poll that had Harris winning ostensibly due to the DNC convention along with a Trafalgar Group Poll that shows good news for Trump in battleground states. Open here for the Nate Silver citation because now he’s reversed course, and please see this ‘if the election were held today’ (taken August 29) PA poll below:
Polymarket’s swing state predications show a close race but importantly Trump is up by 4 points. That is the margin Democrats need to win by in order to win the election.
Republicans are, according to Kirk, never up post-Labor Day and never up by this much. Put another way, when Democrats are up in national polls it points to a popular vote victory, but when Republicans are up nationally it points to an electoral victory.
Other than MI and WI, it’s a blow out for Trump. It would be foolish to write off either MI or WI completely with 60 days to go considering the true momentum of this Trump campaign. Trump held a huge rally last Saturday in Mosinee, WI so he is not giving up on that state even though Harris’s running mate, Tim Walz, is governor Wisconsin neighbor, Minnesota.
Polymarket screengrab below:
#7. What Does Team Trump Say About the State of the Race?
On September 3rd, Trump’s campaign heads, Susie Wiles and Chris LaCivita, issued a campaign memo designed to put Team Kamunism on defense.
They slammed Harris for not giving interviews to the media since her installment as the Democrat candidate, for attacking Gold Star families who invited President Trump to Arlington Cemetery for a wreath-laying ceremony honoring 13 fallen soldiers in the Afghan withdrawal; and, for how the media defends her (when they are 90% negative toward Donald Trump) for declaring, ‘my values haven’t changed’ as she ‘still believes in mass amnesty, ending cash bail, banning fracking, abolishing private health insurance, and banning gas-powered vehicles.’
But any time Trump is doing a media round-up, the record has to be set straight. Here are a few of Team Trump’s poll-related highlights:
- Three weeks ago, the Democrat’s newly crowned nominee — Kamala Harris — was leading in Nate Silver’s Electoral College modeling. The forecast has since inversed in President Trump’s favor.
- Despite the bias, if the election were held today, Donald Trump would be reelected. President Trump will continue to outline his winning agenda this week at The Economic Club of New York and the Fraternal Order of Police Conference in North Carolina.
- Kamala, on the other hand, has stalled and received no boost from the Democratic Convention. This headline from ABC’s poll says it all: “Harris doesn’t get convention bounce.”
- Several media-sponsored polls show that compared to 2020 exit polls, President Trump is outperforming with Blacks, Hispanics and even younger voters (18-34) so far in 2024. Now, the Harris campaign is spending millions of dollars on targeted TV and radio advertisements to stem the loss of black support in battleground states.
Source: Donald J. Trump, Palm Beach Playbook. For the full memo, click here.
CONCLUSION
Did it ever make any sense whatsoever that Candidate A — who really is a card-carrying Communist — could be dropped into this contest last-minute and actually reach some 165 million potential voters with a persuasive and positive message for the country considering the invasion at our southern border, rising crime, and runaway inflation against Donald Trump’s 9-year long visibility with the electorate that included four successful years in the White House?
Trump has been campaigning almost non-stop since before the 2022 midterm races. We have seen the intensity of his campaign grow day-by-day as he has honed his pitch to reach new voters among blacks, Latinos, and now Gen Z males where his numbers are growing in these traditionally Democrat demos.
Democrats raise millions more from donors than Republicans, but that has been true for decades. Trump spent one-third of what Clinton did in 2016 and won. Biden spent 6 times more and only won by 44,000 votes.
Harris and the Democrats are outraising the Trump campaign now even though a handful of prominent billionaires – in addition to Elon Musk – are putting their weight and their money behind Donald Trump.
We also are just beginning to calculate the impact that major endorsements Trump has won from powerful Democrats most notably from Robert F. Kennedy, Jr. will have on polls and the race. ICYMI, here is link to Kennedy’s Address to the nation announcing he would suspend his campaign and endorse Donald J. Trump for president: https://www.kennedy24.com/national-address-august
“A Vote for Trump is a Vote for Kennedy” is the new slogan he is using as he campaigns for the former president. See his website here for more.
If you heard Mark Mitchell’s exposition (see point 5) on Kennedy’s endorsement or have seen other commentary on this seismic event, you will understand that a Kennedy – so-called American political royalty (and we loathe that epithet), joining forces with Trump – a Republican but still an establishment outsider – in a shared mission to save the country from Big Ag, Big Pharma, Big Gov, Big Tech, Big Media, Big Everything is mind-numbing sound-barrier breaking momentum shifting news that favors Mr. Trump!
Team Unity – Unity Over Uniparty
Other than Robert Kennedy Jr’s support who is already campaigning for and with Trump, Trump has won over Tulsi Gabbard, a former Democrat Representative from Hawaii who ran for president as a Democrat in 2020; and, Elon Musk, the wealthiest man in the world who was content to sit on the sidelines of politics until this year. He and Trump look like best buds now as illustrated in the post below.
Team Unity is rounded out nicely by JD Vance, his brilliant pick for VP and current Republican Senator from Ohio, and Vivek Ramaswamy who is tirelessly stumping from the former president as well after running his own campaign for president.
These are startling new political alignments. Like draft picks in sports, Democrats got neocon Liz Cheney and her father, Dick, former VP to George W. Bush, and Jimmy McCain, son of the late Arizona Senator, John McCain, who single-handedly was responsible for not passing the Trump-backed healthcare reform bill when he was president, and we got the heavy Democrat hitters with more to come.
Click images for full videos:
